The numbers show a path forward: An analysis from Pat's campaign manager

Thank you for your support of this Campaign. We have spent the last week analyzing the results of this election and want to share some numbers with you. While the ultimate result is not what we had hoped for, there is much we accomplished together.

Over 114,000 people voted for Pat. This is the highest number of votes a Democrat has received in this race since it was an open seat without an incumbent in 2012.

To accomplish that, the campaign worked for nearly 18 months, and in the final push in the last eight weeks alone we built a team of over 300 volunteers, made over 50,000 calls, sent over 100,000 texts, met with thousands at our online and socially distanced in-person events, and reached hundreds of thousands more through TV, radio, and digital platforms. The result of this effort is that over 75% of the voters we contacted turned out to vote, compared to 47% voter turnout overall. This shows the power of our strategy and volunteer effort in turning out the vote.

Pat raised approximately $950,000 and over 95% of these contributions were from individual donors. None was from corporate PACs or from self-financing. Pat followed through with her commitment to be responsible to the people of this District, not outside corporate interests.

All of this was done in an unprecedented pandemic that limited many of the traditional ways we could meet, but did not stop our people-powered effort. Pat received national media attention, including from the New York Times, Newsweek, Marie Claire, NBC News, Time Magazine, and others. Pat is the first candidate in this District to be endorsed by a Presidential nominee who won the Presidency, Joe Biden, and a former Presidential nominee, Pete Buttigieg.

Unfortunately, our shared effort was not enough to win the race. The state of Indiana and this District were hit with a red wave, and Democrats did not turn out in the same numbers as Republicans. For example, 75% of the strongest Republicans turned out to vote, but only 65% of the strongest Democrats did. Similarly, 53% of moderate Republicans voted, but only 41% of moderate Democrats did. There was also a significant increase in Republican straight ticket voters. In 2016 and 2018 there were approximately 65,000 and 69,000 Republican straight ticket votes in IN02, respectively. This year there was approximately 97,000 – a 41% increase. Comparatively, only approximately 56,000 Democrats voted straight ticket this year, a 27% increase from approximately 45,000 in 2018.

This occurred even in St. Joseph County, which has long been the Democratic stronghold in this District. In 2016 there were approximately 19,000 Republican straight ticket votes in St. Joseph County and in 2018 there were approximately 21,000. This year there were almost 35,000 – a 63% increase. Nonetheless, Pat still won St. Joseph County. Out of the 14 competitive races at the federal, state, and county level in St. Joseph County, Democrats won only four – Joe Biden for President, Pat Hackett for U.S. Representative, Jonathan Weinzapfel for Attorney General, and Ryan Dvorak for State Representative District 8. Pat received the second highest votes of any Democrat in St. Joseph County at 58,859 votes, trailing only Joe Biden by 1,000 votes, and winning with 51.34% of the vote.

The numbers show a path forward – one that we have seen from the start. This race is not about the Republicans’ gerrymandering or corporate PAC money. It is about getting out the vote. If everyone in this District voted, Democrats would win with over 50.6% of the vote. COVID-19 made that a challenge in this historic year. We must build a stronger infrastructure as a party, continue to organize, and continue to believe that each and every vote matters in every county in this District. Going forward, we must also ensure that voter files are not unlawfully purged, continue to register new voters, and continue to target and strengthen areas of disenfranchised voters.

As Pat often quoted on the campaign trail from Eleanor Roosevelt’s statement at the 1940 Democratic Convention, “No one candidate on his or her own can carry this alone. It can only be carried by a united people who love their county.”

We are proud of what we accomplished together. We know there is more work to do. We are ready to do it because Dignity and Justice for All is worth fighting for. Pat, I, and the entire team thank you for joining us in this effort.

Patrick Kibbe
Campaign Manager